Climate Model Ill Wind

Climate models fail to predict wind, which is an extremely significant forecasting facet. That wind is predictable highlights how pathetic climate model forecasts are.

A study of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic found climate there “highly predictable.” “Current models underestimate the predictable signal by an order of magnitude,” reports English climate scientist Doug Smith.

That means models “are unlikely to correctly predict the long-term changes that are most influenced by large-scale wind patterns: rainfall, drought, flooding, and extreme storms,” writes planetary science journalist Paul Voosen. All current climate models are “wrong,” and are “probably making pretty profound mistakes in climate change assessment,” figures American atmospheric scientist Benjamin Kirtman.

“We can’t take the models at face value,” concludes Smith. Wind changes affect the odds of cyclones (hurricanes), floods, droughts, and other such events. Bad climate modeling means that forecasts are far too conservative in predicting planetary hotting up, and just plain off in anticipating extreme weather.

The self-extinction humans have manufactured is likely to be rushing forward faster than predicated; not that anything is likely to be done about our impending demise until far too late.


Paul Voosen, “Hidden predictability in winds could improve climate forecasts,” Science (31 July 2020).

D.M. Smith et al, “North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply,” Nature (29 July 2020).